By Jitender Bhargava
When Coronavirus began playing havoc for an unprepared world in early 2020, governments globally decided to ground airlines as passengers were considered super spreaders. The airlines were completely averse to the grounding decision fearing huge financial incapacitation. Air travellers were equally critical of the decision because they found themselves suddenly stranded and were not able to fly for professional and personal reasons, thus resulting in an unprecedented situation for the industry.
With the Omicron SARS-CoV-2 variant triggering an extraordinary spike in the number of Covid cases worldwide since December 2021 a complete role reversal is being witnessed. The governments globally are encouraging airlines to maintain normal flight operations to safeguard economies but airlines are being compelled to reduce capacity deployment because there are not enough passengers flying. The Indian domestic market has seen a staggering 35% plus drop in air travellers on a daily basis in January 2022.
Ironically, it was in October 2021 that the Indian government permitted airlines to operate at full capacity because every successive month had seen a higher number of flyers since May 2021 and airlines were recording high seat occupancy factors. With over 3.9 lakh passenger carriage on certain days in December, attainment of pre-Covid level was just 5% points away.
International Flights
The saga of international flights is far more abysmal. International flights now operating at a mere 39.5% of November 2019 level (November 2020 being considered a washout year) face a far more uncertain trajectory for recovery with multiple imponderables.
The scenario being visualised now is in contrast to the optimism that the industry had projected barely two months ago when governments of major countries like the USA, European nations decided to allow international passengers into their countries; airlines announced resumption of overseas flights, more than 40% of the global population having received at least one dose of vaccination. The introduction of new health check regulations at airports has ensured that passengers can travel in an unhindered manner as long as the passenger can afford the high cost related to flying.
Rajesh Tiwari, a Mumbai resident, who recently travelled from Mumbai to London to Seattle and back on the same routing, said that even though on-board experience is not much different from the pre-Covid days – except the compulsion of wearing a mask at all times, which at times is inconvenient, the ground regulations are irksome. Even for fully vaccinated passengers, every airport insists on a RT- PCR test report. The cost of tests vary from airport to airport and country to country which adds up significantly to the cost of flying and is a huge deterrent for international travel.
No Early Recovery Signs
IATA, however, in a recent statement had averred that governments have over-reacted to the emergence of the Omicron variant and resorted to the tried-and-failed methods of border closures, excessive testing of travellers and quarantine to slow the spread. Not surprisingly, international ticket sales have fallen sharply suggesting a more difficult first quarter of 2022 than earlier expected by the airlines. If the experience of the last 22 months has shown anything, it is that there is little or no correlation between the introduction of travel restrictions and prevention of transmission of the virus across borders, asserts IATA.
Views may differ from IATA regarding testing of travellers and quarantine regulations imposed by governments, nonetheless, the fact is that such developments have thrown a spanner in any hopes that airlines harboured for early recovery. Interestingly, there are other unrelated factors too that are impeding international travel. With Embassies and consulates of countries being shut for prolonged periods due to lockdowns, issuing of visas to intending travellers has been adversely impacted during the pandemic months.
Visa Issue
The impact on inbound international travel to India during the Covid-inflicted years can best be gauged from the fact that India granted a mere 40,000 e-visas and 4,45,000 regular visas in 2021 to foreign nationals, which was a stupendous fall from an already depleted number of 6,98,000 e-visas and 7,05,000 regular visas issued in 2020, the first Covid year. This is a significant reduction from the number of visas issued in 2019 – 2.9 million e-visas and 3.2 million regular visas.
It is not just the ban on international flights imposed by various countries hindering the progress of international travel but also a variety of other factors, including the fear of Omicron and increasing number of cases being recorded worldwide. Let us hope the Omicron variant retreats soon and no other new variant emerges and other travel related restrictions are lifted, and people are able to travel freely as one did in the pre-Covid years.
Jitender Bhargava, former executive director, Air India & author of ‘The Descent of Air India’.