By Air Marshal Anil Chopra (r)
Since late February, the world has been gripped by the conflict in Ukraine. The geo-political action in the region began immediately after the dissolution of the Soviet Union. Ukraine is the second-largest European nation after Russia. Ukraine initially chose a foreign policy that would balance cooperation with the European Union (EU), Russia, and other influential countries. However, the ‘Revolution of Dignity’ of February 2014 culminated in the ousting of pro-Russian President Yanukovych. Fearing Ukrainian tilt to the West, Russia annexed Crimea from Ukraine in 2014, as it was critical to its Black Sea fleet. The strong pro-EU surge of public opinion thereafter moved Ukraine closer to the West.
Ukraine would have been admitted to EU and North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO), which led to the ultimatum from President Putin, seeing no acceptable response invaded Ukraine with an aim to install a pro-Russian government. The West responded with strong support to Ukraine and crippling economic sanctions on Russia. Ukraine is supplied with anti-aircraft and anti-tank weapons among intelligence and communications support. Since Ukraine is presently a member neither of the EU, nor of NATO, there is to be no direct military intervention and no imposition of a no-fly zone by the west. An immediate concern for India is the rising oil and commodity prices, and the risk of disruption of the military supply chain from the conflict zone. Prime Minister Modi chaired a meeting of the Cabinet Committee on Security (CCS) on March 13, 2022, to assess the impact of war on India’s defence supplies from the region.
India and Russia have maintained very close relations since 1950. During the Cold War, the two had a strong strategic, military, economic and diplomatic relationship. Both India and Russia term this relationship as a “special and privileged strategic partnership.” The relations are built on five major components: politics, defence, civil nuclear energy, anti-terrorism cooperation and space. Russia and India are today members of international bodies including the United Nations (UN), BRICS, G20, Russian-India-China (RIC) and the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO). More recently as part of the economic cooperation the two have set a target of US$30 billion bilateral trade by 2025. The major trade between the two is in defence, petrochemicals, pharma, and edible oils.
India began receiving defence equipment from Russia in the mid-50s and is amongst the largest markets for the Russian defence industry. Approximately 65% of the Indian military’s hardware is of Russian origin. The total arms imports from Russia remain significant, albeit the percentage is gradually reducing.
India’s Russian origin major defence systems today are the Sukhoi Su-30MKI, MiG-29s, MiG 21 Bison, Beriev A-50 based AWACS, IL-76, An-32, Ilyushin Il-78MKI aerial refueller, Ilyushin Il-38, Mi-17 helicopters, Kamov Ka-31 and Ka-28, many surface-to-air missiles (SA-6, SA-8, 2K22 Tunguska), S-400 AD system, BrahMos cruise missiles, aircraft carrier INS Vikramaditya, numerous frigates, Sindhughosh class (Kilo-class) submarines, T-90, T-72 and T-55 tanks, BMP-2, Smerch and Grad multi-rocket systems, anti-tank guided missiles, machine guns, and Russian 7.62 mm AK-103/AK-203 assault rifle, among others
India-Ukraine Relations
India-Ukraine relations began immediately after the dissolution of the Soviet Union. A Treaty of Friendship and Cooperation was signed in 1992. Ukraine is India’s second-largest trade partner after Russia among the former Soviet countries. The main items being imported by Ukraine from India are drugs, pharmaceutical production, ores and minerals, tobacco products, tea, coffee, spices, silk and jute. The main items imported by India from Ukraine are chemicals, equipment, machines and aircraft and marine engines.
Ukraine also supplies turbines for thermal, hydroelectric and nuclear power plants. Some of the defence equipment spares from Ukraine include the 130mm medium guns, spares for T-72 tanks as well as the T-90 tanks, the OSA-AK surface-to-air missile system, and Tunguska anti-aircraft weapon system, and gas turbine engines for the Indian Navy. However, India has alternative sources for many items.
During Aero India 2021, Ukraine signed four agreements worth US$70 million with India, which includes the sale of new weapons as well as maintenance and upgrades of existing ones in service with the Indian armed forces. Significant areas of defence cooperation with Ukraine was upgrading of An-32 aircraft, which has more or less been completed. India has found alternative vendors for most other defence imports from Ukraine. Effectively there will be no serious impact to the Indian Armed Forces in case of supply chain disruptions from Ukraine.
Indo-U.S. Security Relations
Indo-US Defence Cooperation is of critical importance for bilateral relations. The two countries have inked four foundational security-enabling agreements. India has strategic production platforms for major U.S. corporations like Lockheed Martin, Boeing, GE, among others, producing and exporting military hardware from India. The U.S. and India are crucial partners in the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (QUAD). India purchased some top end military hardware like P-8I, C-17, C-130, and Chinook, Apache, and M777 howitzer, among others. India and the US are expected to reach a target of USD 25 billion in military trade over the next few years. The Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (CAATSA) is a United States federal law that imposed sanctions on Iran, North Korea, and Russia. The bill was passed by the Senate on 27 July 2017.
In October 2018, India inked a US$5.43 billion deal with Russia to procure four S-400 Triumf surface-to-air missile defence systems, while ignoring the CAATSA. India stood its ground. After India’s neutral stand on Ukraine, more voices can be heard in favour of demanding action against India. India is an important player in the Indo-Pacific region and the two nations have a strategic interest in remaining allies in order to check the rising concerns over China. India’s refusal to condemn Russia’s invasion of Ukraine did result in a serious divergence of views and created a ‘trust-deficit’ between the UK and India, but in view of the comprehensive nature of the strategic partnership, the UK’s political leadership has also not publicly criticised or expressed its disappointment with India.
The Centrality Of The Indo-Pacific For India
As security of Europe is central to most of the Western countries, for India, China remains the principal threat to its security. The West and India have congruence on the Chinese military’s assertive policies in the Indo-Pacific, including its aggression against India. The West’s intent to deepen defence cooperation with India, seeking to provide an alternative to Russia, is a fair desire, but currently ambitious. India’s dependence on Russian arms and the phasing out of older Russian weapon systems and spares from India’s armed forces, will take a few more decades. Currently, the USA is not inclined to step in on behalf of India against China. India needs Russia for its defence preparedness.
Implications For India’s Military Supplies
The war in Ukraine is an ‘economic catastrophe’ for the world, and comes on the heels of two years of Covid-19. Inflation is already rising. The rise in prices of oil and gas, due to sanctions on Russia, will certainly have a negative impact on the Indian economy. Supply disruptions have hit global prices of wheat, soybean, fertiliser and metals like copper, steel and aluminium. India chose to abstain during the UN vote to avoid taking sides. It is generally a wait and watch situation for many as the situation remains fluid and full of “uncertainties”.
Russian defence factories are currently busy producing military hardware for the war in Ukraine and supply for Belarus. They are also preparing and accumulating hardware for a possible showdown with NATO. Western economic sanctions will make Russia further cash-strapped, and it will affect defence production. Some of the Russian hardware may be dependent on imports from the West. All this could affect military spares and equipment supplies to India.
However, the real impact of the sanctions against Russia remains an open-ended question. If the West chooses to apply sanctions on anyone dealing with Russia, then the implications for India will be significant. It could impact spares and maintenance of the existing military hardware. India is analysing all aspects including stability in the supply chain and making payments for ongoing projects and services amid sanctions on Russian banks. It is hoped that wisdom will prevail, because a weakened India is to no one’s benefit.
The impact of this crisis has also put more impetus into indigenous manufacturing programmes and look for local solutions. It is clear that India has to be ready to fight future wars with indigenous weapons. There is no soft power without hard power. We need to continue to build our hard power. Becoming a nuclear power was a wise decision, because it acts as a major deterrent.
Building an indigenous research and development (R&D) environment and manufacturing base requires considerable time. India must also start finding Indian companies or alternative sources for Russian spares to maintain the existing inventory. The government has taken many steps to promote Indian defence manufacturing, including, local industry-friendly Defence Procurement Procedure (DPP), larger Capital budget for “buy-India”, raising foreign direct investment (FDI) limit for defence industry, funding for defence start-ups, defence manufacturing corridors with special facilities, among others. India now has a large no-import list of defence items.
The so-called global rules-based order is of convenience. Self-sufficiency in food, fuel or alternate power (nuclear power) and arms manufacturing is crucial. Anything can be weaponised. From financial protocols like Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunications (SWIFT), civilian airspace, social media, sporting bodies, properties abroad and bank holdings. It is so important to have one’s own global satellite navigation system, which India has very wisely put in place decades ago.
The writing on the wall is clear: self-sufficiency in key areas needs to be on top of all government agendas.
