By Admiral Sunil Lanba (r)
Ukraine’s invasion is not just a European event or issue; it has global geo-strategic & economic implications. The invasion has not gone according to Russia’s plan of quickly overrunning the country & achieving their aims. Ukrainian resistance has been unprecedented; the initial prediction of Kyiv falling within a week has been proved entirely wrong & as things stand, after intense combat. Having failed to capture enough major cities, the Russians shifted tactics to bombing cities into submission.
It was widely believed that, in the post cold-war era, because of globalisation, traditional geo-political rivalries would be replaced with peaceful & harmonious economic competition. Strategists contented that the end of the 20th century would give birth to an era of unprecedented prosperity, everlasting peace & institutionalised collaborative ties. The rewards of trade would discourage the scourge of war. However, such a perspective overlooks the weight of history & the propensity for confrontation as an unavoidable feature of human nature.
The ongoing Russian invasion of Ukraine has dissipated remaining doubts about the extinction of inter-state war as a way to settle unresolved geo-political disputes in the 21st century. The war has also been a huge wake-up call for the EU. The geo-political awakening has been swift, & the EU has quickly gotten their act together.
The EU has implemented a package of sanctions, which will have a severe adverse effect on the Russian economy, however not without repercussions on EU member states. As western companies disengage & sanctions start to take effect, it would lead to an economic slowdown in Russia. With major oil companies pulling their investment in Russia’s energy sector, it will hurt them in the most critical areas of the Russian economy. The ongoing discussion over banning oil & gas imports from Russia shows the seriousness of the commitment to inflict pain & willingness to pay the price to achieve geo-political aims.
The invasion was a wake-up call for NATO, too. It forged greater unity amongst members & a geo-political awakening. Germany has made a turn in its defence policy by announcing an expenditure of 100 billion euros on defence over the next four years & a commitment of over two percent of GDP on defence. In addition, a large number of member states have committed to increasing defence expenditure to two percent of GDP. There is also renewed focus on the part of the EU on the Common Security & Defence Policy, a quick deployable standing force of 5,000 has been announced. Also, both the EU & NATO are providing military aid to Ukraine, including lethal weapons, which has played an important role in stalling the Russian advance.
The invasion is having its fallout in India. The country has abstained from voting in the UNSC & UNGA. Russia has been India’s long-standing geo-strategic partner. The bilateral trade volume in 2020–2021 was about nine billion dollars. About 65 percent of India’s military hardware is of Russian origin; our tri-services have Russian hardware & platform in their inventory. India also has a fleet of Ukraine transport aircraft in the form of Antonov An 32 aircraft & a number of naval platforms are fitted with Ukraine marine gas turbines. The sanctions & conflict would have an adverse effect on preparedness as the sourcing of spares to maintain Russian & Ukrainian platforms would be affected. India would have to find alternate ways to continue payment for trade & purchases as Russian Banks have been sanctioned & debarred from the SWIFT settlement system.
The other significant fallout is the shift of geo-strategic focus from the Indo-Pacific to Europe of the US & European nations. Depending on how the situation in Ukraine develops, how long the conflict lasts, how Russia fares & what is the final settlement, there would be several regional security implications in the Indo-Pacific. Countries in the Indo-Pacific may hedge on the idea of the Indo-Pacific.
There may be greater congruence between China & Russia in denying the USA the dominant position in the Pacific. The IOR is turning into the next arena for major power competition. India’s security situation in the IOR would be more complex. This would call for a much greater focus on the maritime domain & investment in naval capability so as to secure our SLOC & national interest. Also, we would need to relook at our critical supply chains in the larger economy & defence equipment.
The Ukrainian crisis has demonstrated that warfare is a complex phenomenon that transcends the military sphere. The war is being fought in Ukraine, but its geo-economic shadow has reached global scales. Geo-economics has become a key battlespace in the new cold war. Economic warfare would have a lot of unintended consequences. Predicting ‘an out’ of this conflict is complex & premature. But one thing is certain there would be a greater confrontation in the global financial ecosystem. The escalating geo-economic confrontation needs reassessment of national security & foreign policies.
The only way to resolve the conflict is through diplomatic means & futures must be decided through dialogue, which is the only answer for a sustainable, peaceful solution.
