By Bikram Vohra
As any hard-core aviation journalist will accept, airshows are not the most exciting assignments. Besides a mountain of turgid press releases steeped in self-praise, very little controversy in the corporate conferences and no real scoops, there is also the trudge and it is wearing on the shoe leather and wearying on the soul. So on day two or three the Airbus and Boeing Conferences usually hours apart become the spot of light in the drabness. Like a pre-heavyweight bout weigh in, you know they are going to slag each other off, we will get some sound bites and quotes and ginger up our copy, after we have laughed along with both sides in displays of equal sycophancy.
For sure, the two big boys sometimes descend into rudeness and that makes our day.
At one such prefab congregation I asked why we have this airshow slanging match when the two of you cannot deliver on time and would be quite content with a 50/50 share rather than fling vaguely absurd percentages at us dutiful and unquestioning aviation media. There was this painful silence and it was John Leahy the head sales at Airbus in those days, who sidestepped it with customary charm and that was that never has it been truer. The demand cannot be met and as more and more people opt for a flight, the pressure will increase. They do not have the capability. Boeing is on the backfoot after the 737 Max fiasco and the railing given its dubious work ethic following the merger with McDonnell Douglas.
The crash of the China Airlines 737 adds more pressure and this has been further exacerbated by the breaking up of the DHL 757 on touching down at Costa Rica. Air France’s 777 causes a landing scare at CDG after it is claimed it refused to respond to controls as the pilots struggled to keep her from veering off.
That is not all, troubles with the Dreamliner production have hurt Boeing’s bottom line, incurring $4.5 billion in charges in the fourth quarter and paying customers penalties for pushing back delivery dates, something that is not going to stop.
Airbus was hard hit by the premature end of the A380 era, both have laid off shop floor staff, and spooling back to pre-Covid is going to cost. Besides, how much can you speed up manufacturing? Qatar also grounded 22 A350 jets over erosion to their painted surface and lightning protection. Airbus says the issues are no reason to ground the planes and it seems the demand for $600 million by Airbus as compensation could lead to a major legal battle.
However, Airbus still has the higher ground. Its A320 family and the entry of the A220 are certain to be attractive with the A350 thrown in at the top of the cluster.
India alone is looking at 2,210 planes over the next twenty years. The global fleet will double by 2040 to 48,000 and someone has to make those planes. Much as Boeing and Airbus own 89 percent of the global market, they are lucky that the competition does not have the global infrastructure and support systems that are comparable. But make no mistake with the current affection for narrow body longer range aircraft and more spokes in a hub with the proviso of sub-hubs or mini hubs the options of other manufacturers pulling in the slack is more than likely.
New airliner manufacturers like Comac with the C 919, UAC in Russia with the MC 21 and Mitsubishi with the Spacejet will join Embraer and its E-Jets 190/195 as impressive competition to the main players. This is going to be inevitable what with 24,000 aircraft to be made over two decades.
The C 919 passenger model of the aircraft will accommodate up to 170 passengers. The standard MC-21-300 has a capacity of 132–163 passengers in a two-class configuration and 165–211 in a single class, and a range up to 6,000–6,400 km. Spacejet will offer an 80-seater and all promise a cleaner, greener fuel burn. After buying Bombardier for $550 million Mitsubishi states its Spacejet will achieve a game-changing fuel efficiency. At the same time, it says it has significantly increased passenger space relative to standard regional jets, ensuring the utmost comfort and passenger experience. With its environmentally friendly, highly efficient and comfortable design, the claim is it will contribute to the profitability and competitiveness of airlines around the world.
The C 919 will go into deliveries and even though much of its parts are made in the west that percentage will gradually reduce. As much as 60% is from the USA. Even though the project is severely delayed and plagued by problems, including certification Comac still anticipates a sale of 2,000 aircraft at home and abroad in this time period.
The intent is very clear. “They’ve [Comac] decided to spend as much as needed and take as long as necessary until they have their own plane that can rival Boeing and Airbus,” The Centre for Strategic and International Studies advisor, Scott Kennedy, told American media website CNET.
Brazilian manufacturer Embraer has already established its bona fides and the E-jets have a strong presence on future purchase graphs. In keeping with regional interconnectivity becoming a powerful element in the present scenario, a fully SAF-compliant 50-seat turboprop regional aircraft in 2022 is on the anvil and just the US demand could be 600 aircraft. India is another major customer with its UDAN programme where it expects another 300 million new fliers over the next ten years as it opens its interior and creates an air network.
According to the manufacturer, this is the regional jet with ‘the big jet’ feel. E-Jets lead the way in performance and efficiency in single-aisle. The industry’s most successful line of 70 to 150 seat passenger jets, with over 80 airlines flying the model and an average mission completion rate of 99.9%. As we can see the 150 to 170, passenger segment is going to be the most competitive and in demand as the narrowbodies take precedence. As a sidebar, the overall employment of airline and commercial pilots is projected to grow 13 percent from 2020 to 2030. About 14,500 to 15,000 openings for airline and commercial pilots are expected annually over the next decade.
Perhaps with a touch of irony both the big boys could face competition from another source. Some carriers will seriously look at options from airlines ready to reduce their fleets as also from actual leasing companies to fulfill the demand that will be made on them.
For now, though, Boeing and Airbus despite their troubles and there is enough of that, will still be selling briskly. Last year, according to one report, “Airbus rang up 771 new orders ranging from A350s for Lufthansa to A321neos for Wizz Air. Boeing took 909 orders from different customers throughout the year, including 140 MAXs for Southwest and 258 for United.”
These were just orders so, after the effect of cancellations, it is about 507 for Airbus and 498 for Boeing, which is pretty much 50/50 as one expects. Moreover, as one stated at the very beginning, they are best off when they both have an equal share of the market. The MoUs at airshows are often just bells and whistles to spike the martinis.
