By Lieutenant General VG Khandare (r)
The world order hierarchy is an outcome of relative comprehensive national power and the capability to influence other nations. Intent flows out of deliverable power or influencing power and leadership psyche. Nations and civilisations become powerful and influential by reducing their inherent deficiencies and external dependence. Inherited or acquired resource deficiencies result in the growth retardation of nations.
Colonial powers exploited colonies and prospered. Imperialism was driven by territorial ambitions, religious fanaticism and economic factors. Neo-imperialism was driven by ideology resulting in a Cold War. The end of the Cold War was followed by the dominance of global terrorism, which continues even today. The prevalent uncertainties are an outcome of the revisionist surge by RISING aspirational powers like China. Fundamentally, prolonged extreme external dependence of any kind reduces strategic autonomy. Nations, as well as empires, collapse due to excessive reliance on others on tangible or intangible resources and also due to internal fault lines.
Self-reliance is sought by all aspiring nations. These are historical as well as current realities. Generally, nations go to war for interests, fear or honour. In India’s troubled neighbourhood, war is a possibility due to many reasons, not necessarily due to our actions. But the war’s outcome would squarely rest on our shoulders due to our omissions and commissions. The article aims to touch on a few issues only. The domain of self reliance is vast and has many issues involved.
Quality and adequate numbers of human capital, visionary national leadership, motivated masses, enabling governance, agility in processes and procedures, technological capability, research and development (R&D) commitment, adequacy of economic muscle, civil-military fusion, superior business sense, strategic culture etc. are some of the critical factors which can ensure self-reliance. There are enough historical and contemporary examples that need to be studied in the Indian context. Westernisation does not necessarily mean modernisation. India needs to customise solutions with the ‘whole of nation’ approach. India was a prosperous and self-reliant nation until invaders, and colonialist powers found their way to the Indian subcontinent.
Dr Rajiv Kumar, an economist of international repute and the former Vice Chairman of Niti Ayog, quotes, “In a seminal work by Angus Maddison that tracked economic growth of nations between 0 and 2000 AD, published by OECD in 200, India’s share of worldwide GDP in the 1st century AD was estimated at 32.9 percent. A millennium later, in the 11th century AD, India continued to be the biggest economy with a share of 28.9 per cent of the global Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Over the next seven centuries, before the beginning of a colonial rule, India’s share in global GDP declined to 16 per cent, which was still higher than India’s share in the world population.
With the onset of colonial rule and its concomitant wealth drain, India’s share of the world GDP was reduced to a mere four percent by 1950. Today, India’s share in world output remains at four percent in nominal terms, while its share in the world population has increased to 18 percent and is rising. Our share in global manufacturing, which was also more than 20 percent before de-industrialisation under colonial rule, plummeted to two percent by 1947. By 2019, we have managed to increase it only to 3.1 per cent. Given the above context, we would like to define Atma Nirbharta in terms of restoring India’s share in world GDP and in global manufacturing to at least the same level as it was before the beginning of colonial rule.
Therefore, we must set ourselves the target of achieving at least a 16 percent share in global GDP and a 20 percent share in global manufacturing for true Atmanirbharta.” Economically prosperous but militarily weak was an invitation to warmongers, imperialists and terrorists. We must understand that the defined goal of self-sufficiency and self-reliance towards Atma Nirbharta is all- encompassing and essential. History may repeat, but not in the same form.
A major contributory factor for comprehensive national power is the education system dictating the quality of the human resources. Harnessing past wisdom and synergising it with current good practices is a sensible option. India is blessed with tremendous civilisational knowledge and vast human resources. Unfortunately, the inherited education system has relegated this wisdom to an
inferior status. Interestingly, Western powers moved ahead by reforming their education system to more openness, agility and knowledge-seeking methodology through discussions. We pursued the rigid and degraded form of an outdated western education system. For national growth, the human capital has to be educated, skilled and knowledgeable. This is essential to harness national
opportunities.
Comparison of national power status is logically pitched with those nations which gained independence, got created, or were resurrected post the outcome of war in a similar timeframe as India. The overall national power capability differential mapping with a special focus on self-reliance is stark compared to China, Israel, Japan and South Korea. All of them are far ahead of India. Except for China, the other three nations are young democracies like India. In all four nations, commonalities are razor-sharp nationalism, relentless continuity of comprehensive effort, specific focus on achieving self-reliance, and commitment to economic and technological prowess with emphasis on exports. It is turbulence for growing nations, and success is achieved by national character, commitment and calibre. Unique challenges emerge and appropriate solutions have to be discovered. What stands out is that self-reliance is a vital requirement to be a regional or global power.
Israel
Israel is a ‘startup nation’ and a global centre for technology. How have they achieved this despite all the challenges? Israel was born in desolate desert terrain surrounded by hostile neighbours. Born as a geographically small nation with a limited population, originating from different parts of the world longing for their homeland, they felt victimised. After that, Israel faced six wars, two
major Intifada turbulences, countless violent incidents and a perpetual existential threat. Despite that, Israel has been a winner all the way through. Israel has grown from total external dependence to maximum self-reliance. It has provided many technological solutions to the world, ranging from drip irrigation agricultural solutions for water-stressed areas to highly technical solutions in the
defence sector.
Nobel Prizes have been awarded worldwide to over 900 individuals, of whom at least 20% were Jews and Israel by itself has, in the last 75 years of its existence, produced 13 Nobel Laureates. This speaks volumes of its human resource calibre, national focus towards excellence and high self-esteem of the people. High-quality education, human resource policies, and the nation’s progressive developmental ecosystem are unique models of success.
The first step ensured by the Israeli population toiling hard with multiple innovative solutions right from 1948 onwards was self-reliance in the form of national food security. Their military self-reliance has been on display at all times in terms of military hardware and their human capital, in and out of uniform. The Iron dome has been pivotal in countering all kinds of aerial attacks.
Evolving ahead to counter the drone menace, Israel developed a new laser air defence system called ‘Iron beam’ that is cheaper and more advanced than the Iron dome, the world’s first energy-based weapons system that uses a laser to shoot down incoming unmanned autonomous aerial vehicles, rockets, missiles and mortars at the cost of $3.50 per shot. The Israel defence industry is a strategically important public and private sector employer and a major war-waging material supplier, ranked 12th in the world in 2022. Israeli defence exports hit a new record in 2021, totalling $11.3 billion, showing a 33% leap since 2020 ($8.5 billion). There are over 150 active defence companies based in Israel with combined revenues of more than $3.5 billion annually.
Much of the exports are to the United States and Europe, especially with the current fears of Russia’s intent and doubts about the USA’s commitment to protecting its allies. The world is learning about self-reliance the hard way. Other major regions that purchase Israeli defence equipment include Asia and Latin America. India is also an Israeli arms importer and has been Israel’s largest arms market in the world.
Japan
Another nation for startups is on its way to becoming ‘the place to be.’ With over 10,000 startups and still rising, Japan has proven to be a global hub for entrepreneurs in 2022. Rising from the ashes post-1945, it started to carve out its position in the post-World War II pecking order. Security was outsourced to the USA, and a vanquished Japan focussed on internal consolidation. Military expansion became taboo. Japan’s educational system was customised to a rich combination of ancient wisdom, respect for heritage, and modern Western education.
There have been 25 Nobel Laureates from Japan and four more of Japanese descent. It speaks volumes about their human resource, focus on research and education system. Japan is devoid of natural resources and raw materials dependent. It needs markets for finished products. Food and energy imports have been the fundamental challenges for Japan.
Globally the situation has worsened for both these sectors due to the Russo-Ukraine War. Russia and Ukraine cater for around 30% of the world’s wheat requirements. Japan buys its wheat from the US, Canada, and Australia. The concentration of demand in such alternate suppliers leads to intensified competition and highlights Japan’s vulnerabilities. The Cuban writer and revolutionary José Martí said that “a people that cannot produce its own food is a people enslaved,” while the Japanese poet and sculptor Takamura Kōtarō maintained that “In food at least, one should be self-sufficient. Whether as an individual or a state, without this, there is no real independence.”
The minimum requirement for independence is to be able to meet citizens’ basic needs in any contingency. Japan is also 100% dependent on imports of phosphorus and potassium, which are needed for producing chemical fertilisers. Chinese curbs on exports, and Japan’s deteriorating relations with Russia, another major world supplier, have been major pain points. China is the top phosphate producer, and Russia is fourth, while for potassium, Belarus comes second, Russia third, and China fourth. Unforeseen events like international conflicts can immediately worsen the situation. Extreme weather is a new threat; supplies and prices of various commodities are adversely impacted.
Weaponising energy sources and retaliatory sanctions are a new dimension highlighting the need to find innovative solutions to be self-reliant. High crude oil prices boost demand for biofuels, such as those based on corn and other grains, sending food prices still higher. Long-drawn kinetic conflicts have created enormous demands for war-waging products. Therefore, all nations have to seek better relations to reduce their vulnerabilities. Japan, resource stressed, considers QUAD as one such option. Comparatively, India is blessed with food security but is stressed on energy security. Japan depends on nuclear energy and is opting for renewable energy sources with innovative solutions adopted by the people wholeheartedly. India needs the whole nation’s commitment towards innovative renewable energy solutions to increase self-reliance.
Each vulnerable nation has to find technological, diplomatic, human resource and economic solutions to reduce dependence and increase self-reliance as much as possible. Solutions are found by the decision-making leadership of each domain. Singapore was born as a resource-stressed, turbulent nation and an unwanted neighbour in August 1965. The country has been an excellent example of consistent visionary leadership since its birth. Complying with the vision and adhering to the plan, instructions and processes without questioning the intent has been due to an excellent human resource base in Singapore. Existential threats to Israel, Japan or Singapore have been overcome with a cohesive and contributing citizenry, fundamentally due to good education and a nationalistic focus. Interestingly, all these nations have been successful democracies.
China
The nation was born out of a violent internal and external struggle in 1949. Its journey from a headline communist nation in 1949 to the recent declaration of being a socialist nation with Chinese characteristics has been in the shadow of the Cold War. China has been a beneficiary of US benevolence in the game to disintegrate the erstwhile Union of Soviet Socialist Republic (USSR). China’s economic and technological growth has been due to a combination of US entanglement in China and the Chinese leaders’ national ambition and the people’s total commitment to achieve national Rejuvenation to make China a great nation.
China was fortunate to have been engaged by the USA in the early 1970s to counter the USSR, due to which the benefits of financing, technology and education spurred China on a path never seen before. The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) should be given credit for the focus and control exercised over the population, due to which the growth rate has been phenomenal and sustained; now China is self-reliant in most vital sectors. China now challenges the current world order.
Over the past two decades, China has almost eliminated illiteracy; extended nine years of primary education across the country; developed elite high schools with world-class standards with a focus on science, technology, engineering and maths; employed expat teachers from the West; sent a lot of its youth to study in various countries – not restricted to only the developed world; begun teaching English as a second language from primary school; and dramatically expanded the number of students in higher education from 1.4% in 1978 to 20% today.
China’s leaders and nation builders at all levels recognise envisioned and empowered youth as the current and future skilled workforce. The Chinese Government has made innovation a top priority in its economic planning through several high-profile initiatives, such as ‘Made in China 2025,’ a plan announced in 2015 to upgrade and modernise China’s manufacturing in critical sectors through extensive government assistance to make China a major global player.
However, such measures have increasingly and correctly raised concerns that China intends to use industrial policies to decrease the country’s dependence on foreign technology. China’s intent to cultivate, attract, and retain human capital—or as Beijing popularly calls it, “national talent” — will propel its competitiveness vis-à-vis the US and strive to be a global power; it is already impacting innovation and talent globally. As Chinese leader Xi Jinping has stated, “talent is a strategic resource to achieve national revitalisation and win the initiative in international competition.”
The entanglement of economic relations between the West and China would reduce, gradually and ultimately evolve into Cold War 2.O. That’s India’s opportunity, provided it steps in with a skilled, envisioned and empowered workforce in maximum sectors. While China’s form of government which exercises strict control over its assets, has given it an edge in the pace and direction of growth over India but then there are new democracies which have evolved models and processes and moved ahead rapidly. The focus is entirely on human resources.
Human Resources: According to the World Bank, human capital “consists of the knowledge, skills, and health that people invest in and accumulate throughout their lives, enabling them to realise their potential as productive members of society.” Investments in human capital are a significant driver of growth for modern economies and the foundation of national capacity to support key technology industries and unlock new scientific discoveries. The quality of human resources has been the main emphasis in the growth trajectory of every successful nation. Despite being a democracy, vote bank politics has not been able to pollute the minds of human resources in democracies like Israel and Japan.
Their customised education policies were neither dependent on any colonial master nor were they senseless copies of the West. Engineers in Israel and Japan are made to solve daily and futuristic problems. Hands-on work experience after formal education followed by research work and startup initiation has given a successful recipe to Israel. Mentors are experts from the industry, academia and veterans from the government sector. The nations function from a ‘hope of success’ and not ‘from fear of failure’, but they do have the appetite for individual failure without compromising national aspirations. There is a culture of mutual trust and cooperation in all fields of national requirements.
The USA, which is studying China closely, has undertaken research on China’s spectacular growth. A new report by Asia Society, the Business Roundtable and the Council of Chief State School Officers, entitled Education in China: Lessons for US Educators (24-page PDF), features first-hand observations and research on education and economic trends. “China has a bold long-term vision for investing in education—to raise its people out of poverty and prepare them for the global economy,” said Vivien Stewart, Vice President of the Asia Society and organiser of the delegation. “They have clear goals and aligned systems to implement them.
The report gives out features of this plan that include making 12 years of education universal and the development of world-class universities. The report notes particular strengths of the Chinese system, including an intensive focus on maths and science, an internationally oriented curriculum in high schools, a coherent teacher development process, and the systematic use of international benchmarking to modernise education policies.
China also has a strong cultural commitment to education, and its students are willing to study long hours. The report also shows that China faces enormous challenges, especially the colossal resource and achievement gap between rural and urban areas and a high-stakes examination system that hampers innovation. In addition, there is a need for Chinese education to move beyond simply knowledge acquisition to promoting the ability to think independently and apply knowledge in new situations, two traits in which American schools hold a comparative advantage.
Recommendations For American Education Leaders: The report offers several vital suggestions to help American educators and students learn about China and other world regions and to propel needed global skills in American classrooms. This gives a deep insight into what India could also think about. “China is a society we need to understand so that our children will be prepared. We must engage China, welcoming peaceful growth, while picking up the pace of our own educational progress” said Rick Mills, Commissioner of Education for New York State and a delegation member.
According to the report, the US led the world in high school and higher education participation for much of the twentieth century. Now other countries, including China, are making dramatic and fundamental reforms to prepare their students for success in a knowledge-intensive, high-tech and globalised economy. Learning from China’s remarkable growth, the delegation brought home some clear recommendations for US leaders:
● Make learning about China and other world regions a top priority through world history, geography, international economics, and exchanges with schools worldwide.
● Target the US maths-science achievement gap and get more US students to achieve a genuinely world-class curriculum in these subjects.
● Redesign high schools for a global age by infusing international content throughout the core subject areas and in graduation requirements.
● Expand Chinese language study so 5% of high school students will study the language by 2015.
● Benchmark US education policies against other high-achieving countries and incorporate such international content into the education of future education leaders.
Therefore, India needs to empower its human capital and customise the processes and procedures in all domains. The government and non-government sectors have to get focus while comparing with other nations. At the same time, India has to customise its own policies synergising the traditional wisdom and the good global practices and develop fast through innovations. The bane of some democracies is the quagmire of processes and procedures, which originates from suspicion about everything and everyone. To become self-reliant quickly, we need to overcome such biases. Self-reliance is the best way forward for India, a game changer in a volatile geopolitical, geo-economic and transforming era.
