By Prof Madhav Das Nalapat
Great Power rivalry persists, just as it did in the past. Superpower contestation through hybrid conflict against each other is a reality, just as it was during Cold Conflict 1.0 between the USSR and the US in the 20th century. Since the beginning of the 21st century, China has been seeking to establish the primacy that for so long was assumed by the US, but which is now under threat from its superpower rival, the PRC. As the years slip by, those who remain in denial about the onset of Cold War 2.0 between China and the other superpower, the US, are diminishing a lot. As with Cold War 1.0, the new Cold War will be existential, ending only with the collapse of the widely disparate interests and systems of one or the other.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi has fully understood the reality of Cold War 2.0, which is why he ensured that the Quad was revived together with then PM of Japan Shinzo Abe. After decades of dithering by previous governments, Modi signed the three Foundation Agreements with the US on security. Now that the Indo-Pacific has become the principal area of contestation between the two sides in the new Cold War, India is pivotal as a partner for all countries seeking to prevent the hegemony of a single, authoritarian power over its waters, India has become an essential partner for major democracies.
As a consequence of several factors, Russia is taking the side of China in Cold War 2.0, or in other words partnering with the same country that was on the side of the US during Cold War 1.0. From its actions, including firm responses to attempts at PRC expansionism on land at the cost of India, and the development of its military capacity, India together with the US forms the keystone of the counter-expansionist alliance in the Indo-Pacific, as illustrated by the Quad comprising of Australia, Japan, India and the US. Given that, the country is a secure and able location for manufacturing capability in the defence field.
As a consequence of the unobstructed flow of advanced technology to China despite Cold War 2.0 having started, the PRC reverse-engineered almost all the advanced technologies that it was freely receiving authorized and unauthorized. Since then, some of the flow has stopped, and it is inevitable, for it is not just the prospect of competition from China but using technologies supplied to it in kinetic and non-kinetic modes of the hybrid war that it has been waging with the major democracies. In contrast, the record of India in fields such as Information Technology shows that the country is a safe destination for where manufacture or sale of advanced technologies such as those involved in aircraft manufacture. Sourcing part of production in India would reduce overall costs substantially, thereby giving a competitive edge without any risk of such defence and other platforms being used in kinetic operations against the very countries that have trusted production to China. As for sales, the market is shrinking as domestic technology is leapfrogging, such that the PRC has taken over several markets that were once the exclusive preserve of the democracies.
In a world where friend-shoring has become inevitable, the immense human resources of India make the country a must for the democracies for the production of numerous manufactures. Prime Minister Narendra Modi has launched a Make in India campaign and has ensured significant subsidies for manufacturers of high-tech items. This is why investment needs to come to India in profusion, the way it flowed to the PRC in the past, with the difference that India would always be a friend of other democracies and work with such countries to ensure security in the Indo-Pacific and jointly oppose expansionism of the authoritarian superpower that was enabled to become so the very countries that are now its targets for waging hybrid war, including Japan, Taiwan, the US, South Korea, the UK and the EU. The country’s abundant human resources can in some cases directly and in others through a short bridge period of on-the-job training outperform their Chinese counterparts, and at a much lower cost than is the case with the rival superpower.
Professor Madhav Das Nalapat is a Geopolitical expert. He was appointed India’s first Geopolitics Chair by Manipal University in 1999. He has authored several books, his latest being Practice of Geopolitics (2016) 75 Years of Indian Foreign Policy (2022), Cold War 2.0 (2023) and has co-authored India Beyond the Pandemic (2024).