By Cdr Rahul Verma(r)
According to a legend first recounted in the ‘Acts of St. Peter,’ the words “Domine quo vadis?” (“Lord, where are you going?”) were uttered by St. Peter as he fled Rome, only to encounter Christ, who replied, “I am going to be crucified again.” This moment of existential reflection echoes in the contemporary discourse surrounding airpower, where military leaders face transformative shifts driven by artificial intelligence, autonomy, and uncrewed systems. The advent of manned-unmanned teaming, swarming tactics, and advanced sensor fusion technologies heralds a new era of strategic capabilities, reshaping the very nature of aerial warfare. As we ponder the trajectory of airpower, we are reminded of the words of futurist and technologist Ray Kurzweil, “We won’t just be trying to make machines smarter. We will be trying to make ourselves smarter.” In this context, the imperative to navigate these advancements with wisdom and foresight becomes paramount, challenging us to define what airpower truly signifies in the 21st century.
In 1948, Sir Winston Churchill famously wrote, “Air power is the most difficult of all forms of military force to measure or even express in precise terms.” Fast forward 76 years, and the task has become even more complex with the addition of cyber and space domains. Today, defining airpower has evolved into an even greater challenge. According to the Royal Air Force’s Joint Doctrine Publication (JDP) 0-30, airpower is described as the “ability to use air capabilities in and from the air to influence the behaviours of actors and the course of events.” In the United Kingdom, airpower is continuously employed both domestically and globally to safeguard national interests. While the RAF leads the conceptual development of airpower in the UK, other branches such as the Fleet Air Arm and Army Air Corps also contribute significantly to its execution.
Across the Atlantic, the U.S. Air Force’s Air University defines airpower as “the integrated employment of all air and space forces to control and exploit the air and space environment to achieve national security objectives.” This definition highlights the expansive role of airpower in leveraging the unique operational characteristics of air and space to provide a broad range of military options. It underscores the growing importance of space in conjunction with traditional air operations, an area that continues to redefine modern airpower.
India’s military doctrine also reflects an evolving definition of airpower. The Indian Air Force Publication 2000–12 states that “Air Power is the ability to project military force by or from a platform in the third dimension above the surface of the Earth.” It adds that airpower offers more than just a means of transit, it is a medium for manoeuvre, surprise, concealment, and deployment. With the growing militarization of space, the Indian Air Force logically extends the concept of airpower into “aerospace power,” which includes both military and civil aviation capabilities. This holistic view reflects the increasing reliance on space assets and their associated ground-based infrastructure, crucial to India’s national security.
Defining airpower, and by extension aerospace power, remains vital as it functions alongside diplomatic and economic instruments of national power. In the face of growing complexities such as the integration of cyber and space capabilities, as well as the use of loitering munitions, drones, and artificial intelligence the nature of warfare is being transformed. Air Chief Marshal V.R. Chaudhari, Chief of Air Staff of the Indian Air Force, encapsulated this transformation, stating, “The battlespace is going to be cluttered, congested, contested, and complex. What it amounts to is the need to reimagine, reinvent, rededicate, and retrain ourselves for future conflicts.” His remarks reflect the urgency of adapting airpower to meet the demands of a future where the lines between war and peace are increasingly blurred.
Looking forward, the core delivery of airpower may not change drastically, but emerging technologies will provide more precise data and enhanced situational awareness in the battlespace. Technologies such as Sensor Fusion, Manned-Unmanned Teaming, and new propulsion systems will increase the granularity of operational intelligence. Weapon systems like hypersonic missiles, airborne lasers, and drone swarms are set to revolutionize air combat. The maturity of unmanned systems, particularly in terms of automation, marks a new phase in airpower development. The challenge ahead is integrating these systems as “team players” with manned platforms across air, land, and sea domains, within increasingly contested airspaces. To paraphrase a growing sentiment in the field: “AI won’t replace humans, but humans with AI will soon replace those without AI.”
Naval forces are also advancing in this domain, with unmanned surface vessels (USVs) set to play a critical role in future warfare. These USVs can perform intelligence-gathering missions, act as decoys, and even launch swarm drones to strike targets passed on from other ships. This kind of coordination has the potential to confound enemy forces, making it difficult for them to effectively counter incoming threats.
Recent global conflicts have demonstrated the continued importance of air superiority. Many armed forces have traditionally relied on manned aircraft systems to achieve this dominance, but over the last three decades, unmanned capabilities have increasingly taken center stage. Lower costs, improved return on investment, and a reduction in the decision-making loop (OODA loop) are key factors driving the shift toward unmanned systems. Loitering munitions (LMs) are particularly effective in this environment, serving as the “Ace of Spades” for modern militaries. These systems are crucial even in times of “No War, No Peace,” operating as strategic assets that can swiftly achieve air superiority.
Loitering munitions offer a low-signature, flexible solution that can strike deep within enemy territory without reliance on fixed infrastructure. Their range, endurance, and precision make them an ideal tool for surprising adversaries in critical areas. By utilizing LMs, armed forces can disrupt enemy operations and gain an operational advantage through coordinated, low-cost strikes. As the future of airpower unfolds, it will be shaped by the effective integration of these technologies across multiple domains, transforming not just the conduct of war but its very definition.
Autonomous Systems and Artificial Intelligence (AI)
The integration of AI with UAS and airpower platforms has far-reaching implications for future warfare. AI enables drones and aircraft to perform autonomous navigation, target acquisition, threat assessment, and even strike missions with minimal human intervention. The autonomous nature of these systems allows them to operate in environments where communication with human operators is limited or impossible.
However, the role of AI in airpower does not stop at navigation and targeting. AI-powered systems can process vast amounts of data from sensors, satellites, and cyber networks to provide commanders with actionable insights in real-time. AI will become an indispensable part of future air operations, augmenting human decision-making by sifting through complex information faster and more accurately than human operators ever could.
In addition to unmanned systems, autonomous manned platforms, such as the Loyal Wingman concept, are being developed to enhance the capabilities of manned fighter jets. These AI-powered drones will fly alongside human-piloted aircraft, taking on high-risk tasks like electronic warfare, air defence suppression, and forward reconnaissance. This man-machine teaming represents a significant shift in how airpower will be projected in future conflicts.
The Convergence of Cyber Warfare and Air Operations
As warfare becomes increasingly digitized, cyber warfare has emerged as a critical component of modern airpower. Cyberattacks can disrupt enemy communications, disable air defence systems, and even take control of autonomous drones. In the future, cyber warfare will be closely integrated with air operations, creating new opportunities and vulnerabilities.
One of the most significant developments is the potential to launch cyberattacks via air-based platforms. Airborne cyber units, flying aboard manned or unmanned aircraft, could penetrate deep into enemy territory to launch cyber strikes against key infrastructure, command centers, or data networks. This would allow airpower to project not just physical but also digital force across the globe. In 2010, the discovery of Stuxnet, a groundbreaking digital weapon, sent shockwaves through the cybersecurity world. Unlike previous malware, Stuxnet operated with unprecedented autonomy, much like a Loitering Munition, targeting specific Programmable Logic Controllers (PLCs) without direct human control after deployment. Designed to infiltrate “air-gapped” networks isolated from the internet, similar to our military systems, it revealed alarming vulnerabilities even in the most secure infrastructures. This has profound implications for next-generation weapon systems like the MQ-9B which relies on millions of lines of code. While autonomous systems aren’t necessarily more prone to hacking, the catastrophic potential of compromised military platforms underscores the urgent need to address cyber threats in modern warfare.
Hence, Air Forces will need to strengthen their defences against cyber threats. As aircraft and air defence systems become more networked and reliant on AI, they will be increasingly susceptible to hacking. The cyber defence will become as critical to the success of air operations as traditional kinetic defence measures.
Space: The New High Ground
Space is rapidly becoming the new high ground in military operations, and the role of space in future airpower cannot be underestimated. Satellites provide essential communication, navigation, and surveillance capabilities that underpin nearly all modern military operations. The rise of anti-satellite weapons and space-based defence systems means that controlling space will be critical to maintaining air superiority.
Space-based assets will play a pivotal role in enabling future airpower. Satellite constellations, like the Starlink system, can provide continuous global coverage for communications, navigation, and ISR. This will allow air forces to operate in contested environments without relying on ground-based infrastructure.
As former U.S. Secretary of Defense William J. Perry noted, “The open skies are becoming increasingly transparent,” highlighting the growing challenge of evading detection in a world dominated by AI surveillance and satellite imagery. This transparency forces militaries to rethink strategies for concealing ships and aircraft, as autonomous systems and persistent satellite coverage leave few places to hide. Moreover, space is no longer just a passive domain for support systems. The increasing militarization of space, with nations like the U.S., China, and Russia developing space-based weapons, raises the possibility of direct conflict in space. In the future, air forces will not only need to secure airspace but also ensure dominance in the space domain to protect their assets and maintain operational advantage.
The Future of Airpower: Challenges and Opportunities
The future of air power will be defined by the convergence of UAS, AI, cyber, and space operations. This shift presents both challenges and opportunities for military planners and policymakers.
Challenges of Convergence
One of the significant challenges is ensuring that these systems remain secure and resilient. As General David Goldfein, former Chief of Staff of the U.S. Air Force, stated, “The cyber threat is a clear and present danger. If we don’t defend ourselves in the cyber domain, we’re going to be increasingly vulnerable, not only in terms of our air assets but across all warfighting domains.” This quote underscores the critical importance of cybersecurity in the integration of AI and unmanned systems with traditional air operations. As more platforms rely on advanced networks and AI for decision-making, the risk of cyberattacks becomes more acute.
Similarly, AI’s growing role in military operations raises concerns about reliability, decision-making, and accountability. Former U.S. Secretary of Defense Mark Esper emphasized this when he said, “AI will change the character of war. The speed of data-driven decisions will mean we can act faster, but it also means we must build AI systems that are transparent and ethical.” These concerns are at the forefront of the debate around AI’s use in warfare, as its potential for autonomous decision-making brings significant ethical and operational dilemmas.
In terms of space operations, the challenge is gaining and maintaining control of this rapidly militarizing domain. General John Raymond, the first Chief of Space Operations for the U.S. Space Force, highlighted the complexity of space warfare, saying, “Space is no longer a sanctuary. It is a warfighting domain, and we must be prepared to protect and defend our satellites and other space assets against attack.” His quote reflects the increasing focus on space as a contested environment, where the ability to defend space-based assets such as communication satellites and ISR platforms will be crucial for future airpower operations.
Opportunities in Convergence
While these challenges are significant, the opportunities presented by the convergence of UAS, AI, cyber, and space are equally compelling. AI, in particular, offers the possibility of transforming air operations into something faster, more efficient, and more precise. As Dr. Will Roper, the former Assistant Secretary of the Air Force for Acquisition, Technology, and Logistics, remarked, “AI can enhance our decision-making and put us ahead of our adversaries. With autonomous systems, we’re no longer limited by human speed, machines can react faster and with greater precision.” His observation highlights how AI can shift airpower from a human-centric operation to one augmented by machine learning and data-driven decision-making, allowing for greater operational tempo and effectiveness.
Unmanned systems have also opened new doors for airpower, particularly in terms of cost efficiency and operational reach. As former U.S. Secretary of the Air Force Heather Wilson noted, “Unmanned systems reduce the risk to our airmen and allow us to project power more sustainably.” The ability of drones to perform missions in high-risk environments without endangering pilots extends the reach of air forces while reducing the human cost of operations.
The militarization of space offers yet another strategic advantage. By leveraging satellite networks and space-based assets, future airpower can operate with enhanced communication, navigation, and surveillance capabilities. Elon Musk, CEO of SpaceX, has also commented on the potential of space for military use, stating, “In the not-too-distant future, we’ll see the significant use of space for defence and security.” This underscores the growing role that space will play not just as a support domain but as a critical operational arena in its own right.
Conclusion
The convergence of UAS, AI, cyber, and space operations is redefining the future of airpower, offering both transformative potential and significant challenges. As Paul Scharre, author of Army of None, aptly puts it, “The future of war will be fought not just by human warriors, but by intelligent machines that can think, decide, and even kill on their own.” This quote encapsulates the profound shift in warfare, where AI-driven autonomous systems will play a central role in air operations.
However, with these advancements come ethical and operational challenges. Scharre also warns, “The introduction of autonomous weapons systems raises serious questions about accountability and the ethics of machines making life-or-death decisions.” This statement underscores the critical need for policymakers and military leaders to address the ethical implications of increasingly autonomous airpower technologies.
In navigating these complexities, I would like to emphasize the importance of human oversight, “We must be vigilant in ensuring that machines enhance our capabilities but do not replace the critical moral judgments that only humans can make.” As airpower moves toward greater integration of AI, UAS, cyber, and space capabilities, maintaining this balance will be essential to leverage the advantages of advanced technologies while upholding ethical standards in warfare.
The rules of the war have changed, as there is a blurring of the lines between war and peace, and non-military means of achieving military and targeted goals have grown and, in many cases, exceeded the power of weapons in effectiveness, taking the example of exploding pagers, walkie talkies etc. In this evolving landscape, the future of airpower lies not only in technological prowess but in thoughtful and responsible leadership. Airpower is no longer confined to the skies above but extends into cyberspace and beyond Earth’s atmosphere. As we look ahead, the question Quo Vadis, Airpower? Remains a critical one for military strategists, policymakers, and defence planners. The answer will shape the future of warfare and determine which nations hold the keys to global security in the 21st century and beyond.
Commander Rahul Verma (r) is an Emerging Technology and Prioritization Scout for a leading Indian Multi-National Corporation, focusing on advancing force modernization through innovative technological applications and operational concepts. With 21 years as a Naval Aviator, including a distinguished role in the Indian Navy’s Technology Development Acceleration Cell, he brings diverse aviation experiences, from Seaking Pilot to RPAS Mission Commander and Flying Instructor.
