By Cdr Rahul Verma (r)
The world is at an inflection point where technology and geopolitics intersect to redefine the nature of warfare. Geopolitical hotspots like the Indo-Pacific region are witnessing heightened tensions, with great-power rivalries intensifying amidst China’s aggressive military posturing and Russia’s continued assertiveness. Simultaneously, the nature of asymmetric threats, such as cyber warfare and terrorism, grows increasingly sophisticated, demanding advanced solutions. The application of artificial intelligence (AI) in air combat is transforming how nations prepare for and engage in modern conflicts. From autonomous drones operating in contested environments to predictive analytics pre-empting adversarial moves, AI is reshaping the skies.
Amid this dynamic landscape, artificial intelligence (AI) has emerged as the ultimate game-changer in air combat. The global AI in military market, valued at $8.3 billion in 2022, is expected to reach $19.2 billion by 2027, growing at a CAGR of 18.7%. From autonomous drones executing complex missions in contested airspace to predictive analytics forecasting adversarial moves with unprecedented accuracy, AI is revolutionizing modern airpower strategies. As Palmer Luckey, founder of Anduril Industries, aptly noted, “Lockheed, Raytheon, and the traditional defence companies are good at building some things… But they do not have the world’s best talent when it comes to artificial intelligence, computer vision, and machine learning. That is why our company focuses on that.” This underscores a seismic shift, traditional defence giants are being complemented, and in some cases challenged, by agile innovators specializing in AI and autonomy.
India, uniquely positioned in this rapidly evolving landscape, is leveraging AI to bridge operational gaps, fortify its strategic autonomy, and redefine its role in global defence. As the world’s third-largest military spender and one of its fastest-growing defence ecosystems, India has embraced AI-driven technologies to address capability gaps and enhance its strategic deterrence. The upcoming Aero India 2025, aptly themed “The Runway to a Billion Opportunities,” reflects this momentum. The event will spotlight India’s advancements in AI-driven UAVs, swarm technologies, and predictive analytics, reaffirming the nation’s commitment to shaping the future of air combat in a digitally dominant age.
AI-Driven Advancements in UAVs: The New Vanguard of Air Combat
Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) are transforming air combat, thanks to the integration of artificial intelligence (AI) and sensor fusion technologies. AI-based systems with sensor fusion enable UAVs to process data from multiple sensors, such as electro-optical/infrared (EO/IR) cameras, radar, LiDAR, and communication arrays in real-time, providing unparalleled situational awareness and decision-making capabilities. This fusion of data enhances mission success by enabling UAVs to identify targets, evade threats, and adapt to dynamic battlefield conditions autonomously. Such capabilities are critical for modern warfare, where speed, precision, and adaptability often determine mission outcomes.
Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) are at the forefront of AI integration in air combat, with applications spanning surveillance, precision strikes, and logistics support. In the Indian context, sensor fusion-driven AI systems are being incorporated into indigenous platforms like the DRDO’s Rustom UAV and HAL’s upcoming Combat Air Teaming System (CATS). These systems allow for superior surveillance, autonomous targeting, and collaborative operations between UAVs and manned aircraft, marking a significant leap in India’s defence capabilities. Startups like Big Bang Boom Solutions and established companies like Zen Technologies are also developing AI-enabled counter-drone systems that can detect, classify, and neutralize adversarial UAVs in real time using sensor-fused intelligence. Additionally, IIT institutions, such as IIT Kanpur and IIT Hyderabad, are working on sensor fusion algorithms tailored for high-altitude operations and contested airspaces, demonstrating India’s homegrown talent pool in this domain.
Globally, AI-powered UAVs are pushing boundaries. The U.S. Air Force’s Skyborg program, which pairs autonomous UAVs with manned fighter jets, highlights how human-machine teaming can enhance mission success. Meanwhile, China’s advancements in swarm UAV technology, capable of overwhelming enemy air defences, underline the growing emphasis on AI-driven autonomy in contested airspaces. For India, learning from such global developments while scaling indigenous capabilities will be critical in addressing evolving threats.
This technological transformation presents significant opportunities for foreign OEMs to collaborate with Indian companies. India’s robust startup ecosystem, coupled with initiatives like the iDEX (Innovations for Defence Excellence) program, creates a fertile ground for co-development and co-production. Companies specializing in advanced sensors, AI algorithms, and autonomous technologies can partner with Indian defence giants like TASL, BEL, and L&T to integrate global innovations into India’s platforms. For example, foreign OEMs could contribute expertise in advanced sensor technologies or AI-based analytics engines while benefiting from India’s cost-effective manufacturing and engineering talent.
Moreover, Aero India 2025, themed “The Runway to a Billion Opportunities,” serves as a prime platform for foreign OEMs to explore partnerships with Indian companies. The exhibition will not only showcase India’s achievements in AI and UAV technologies but also provide a gateway for global players to tap into India’s growing defence market, projected to reach $70 billion by 2030. Collaborations in areas like AI-driven sensor fusion, autonomous swarm systems, and advanced propulsion technologies can accelerate innovation and create win-win scenarios for both Indian and foreign stakeholders.
India’s focus on AI-driven UAVs and sensor fusion underscores its commitment to building a self-reliant defence ecosystem while staying at the forefront of global technological advancements. By fostering partnerships and leveraging its innovation ecosystem, India is positioning itself as a key player in shaping the future of air combat.
Swarm Technologies: Force Multipliers in the Air
AI-enabled swarm technologies are redefining the dynamics of air combat, introducing a paradigm where distributed lethality and collaborative decision-making replace traditional notions of air superiority. Swarms of interconnected drones, operating autonomously yet synergistically, bring a game-changing capability to execute complex missions such as precision strikes, area denial, electronic warfare, and reconnaissance with unprecedented efficiency and scale.
India is rapidly advancing in this domain, with indigenous efforts such as the SWiFT (Stealth Wing Flying Testbed) program paving the way for an autonomous unmanned combat air vehicle (UCAV). This initiative underscores India’s commitment to integrating cutting-edge AI and swarm technologies into its defence architecture. Leveraging advancements in AI algorithms, Indian swarm systems are being designed to autonomously identify targets, prioritize threats, and execute precision strikes, making them invaluable force multipliers. The integration of sensor fusion and real-time analytics further enhances their situational awareness, enabling adaptive decision-making even in high-intensity contested environments.
Globally, nations are pushing the envelope in swarm capabilities. The U.S. Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA) is spearheading programs like OFFSET (Offensive Swarm-Enabled Tactics), which focuses on deploying drone swarms in urban warfare scenarios. Similarly, China’s Zhunxingyun swarm demonstrations, featuring hundreds of drones operating in unison, highlight the strategic focus on overwhelming adversaries in anti-access/area-denial (A2/AD) environments. These advancements demonstrate the transformative potential of AI-driven swarms in achieving operational superiority in future conflicts.
By leveraging machine learning, cognitive computing, and sensor fusion, Tardid’s OSCAR system enables UAVs and USVs to operate with minimal human intervention, adapting dynamically to mission requirements. This technology integrates real-time threat assessment, autonomous decision-making, and predictive analytics, making it a game-changer for network-centric warfare.
With India’s increasing focus on AI in defence, Tardid’s advancements in swarm intelligence align perfectly with the broader goal of achieving autonomous, self-reliant combat systems. The incorporation of OSCAR into India’s defence ecosystem offers a unique opportunity for global OEMs to collaborate, co-develop, and enhance AI-driven unmanned warfare capabilities.
India’s strategic position in the Indo-Pacific, coupled with its burgeoning AI ecosystem, offers immense opportunities for innovation and collaboration in swarm technologies. One such commendable effort is Optimized Swarm Cognitive Autonomous Response (OSCAR), an AI-driven framework designed to enhance the autonomy and coordination of unmanned aerial and surface systems. By leveraging machine learning, cognitive computing, and sensor fusion, Tardid’s OSCAR system enables UAVs and USVs to operate with minimal human intervention, adapting dynamically to mission requirements. This technology integrates real-time threat assessment, autonomous decision-making, and predictive analytics, making it a game-changer for network-centric warfare.
As Aero India 2025 underscores the theme “The Runway to a Billion Opportunities,” global defence OEMs can partner with Indian firms to co-develop swarm systems tailored to meet both regional and global security challenges. The fusion of global expertise in AI algorithms with India’s cost-effective manufacturing and indigenous R&D capabilities could drive the evolution of swarm systems, making them indispensable assets in the next generation of air combat.
Predictive Analytics: Shaping Strategy Before the First Shot
In modern air combat, the battle is often won before the first missile is fired, through data-driven foresight and preemptive action. AI-powered predictive analytics is revolutionizing warfare by enabling militaries to anticipate threats, optimize mission planning, and mitigate equipment failures before they occur. By analyzing petabytes of operational data in real-time, AI can uncover hidden patterns in adversary tactics, detect early signs of mechanical wear, and refine strategic responses, drastically improving decision-making under high-pressure conditions.
India is at the forefront of integrating predictive analytics into its defence operations. The Indian Air Force (IAF) has successfully deployed AI-driven predictive maintenance systems, reducing aircraft downtime by up to 30% and improving fleet availability. Meanwhile, defence think tanks, academic institutions like IIT Madras and IIT Kanpur, and private firms are developing advanced wargaming simulations powered by AI, allowing the military to model complex combat scenarios and refine strategic doctrines dynamically.
Additionally, AI-powered Health and Usage Monitoring Systems (HUMS) and digital twin technology are enhancing fleet reliability and combat readiness. Digital twins, real-time virtual replicas of aircraft, allow engineers to simulate stress conditions, predict failures, and optimize performance without physical trials, thereby increasing aircraft longevity and mission reliability. AI-integrated HUMS continuously analyzes engine and system health, flagging potential issues before they become critical, significantly reducing maintenance costs and enhancing operational sustainability.
Globally, predictive analytics is becoming a cornerstone of next-generation warfare. NATO’s Persistent Threat Detection System (PTDS) has demonstrated the effectiveness of AI-driven surveillance in identifying emerging threats, while the U.S. Department of Defense’s Joint All-Domain Command and Control (JADC2) integrates AI to enhance multi-domain situational awareness and rapid decision-making. For India, aligning these cutting-edge capabilities with its evolving geopolitical and operational challenges, especially in the Indo-Pacific and Himalayan theatres will be critical to maintaining a strategic edge against both conventional and asymmetric threats.
Challenges and the Path Forward
The integration of AI into air combat is not just an opportunity it is an imperative. However, this transformation is fraught with challenges that must be addressed with precision and urgency. Ensuring the ethical deployment of AI, mitigating cybersecurity vulnerabilities, and overcoming the trust deficit in autonomous systems remain critical concerns. The battlefield of the future will be shaped not just by superior firepower, but by the confidence in AI-driven decision-making—a factor that will determine operational effectiveness and mission success.
For India to cement its position as a global leader in AI-powered warfare, accelerated investments in AI R&D, deepened public-private partnerships, and a highly skilled workforce will be essential. While initiatives such as the Defence AI Strategy and iDEX (Innovations for Defence Excellence) mark significant progress, these efforts must be aligned with global best practices and bolstered through strategic partnerships with AI powerhouses like the United States, Israel, and France. The challenge is not just to develop cutting-edge AI solutions but to ensure interoperability with allied forces, enabling seamless coordination in joint operations.
Moreover, India must navigate the delicate balance between innovation and regulation. The rapid evolution of AI necessitates robust testing protocols, clear accountability frameworks, and stringent validation mechanisms to ensure reliability in combat scenarios. Establishing AI ethics councils, sandbox environments for real-world testing, and dynamic policy frameworks will be crucial in fostering both operational trust and public confidence.
Ultimately, India’s ability to integrate AI responsibly, secure critical digital infrastructures, and lead in AI-driven combat strategy will define its role in the next era of warfare. The choice is clear lead the charge or risk strategic obsolescence.
Cdr Rahul Verma (r), former Cdr (TDAC) at the Indian Navy, boasts 21 years as a Naval Aviator with diverse aircraft experience. Seaking Pilot, RPAS Flying Instructor, and more, his core competencies span Product and Innovation Management, Aerospace Law, UAS, and Flight Safety. The author is an Emerging Technology and Prioritization Scout for a leading Indian Multi-National Corporation, focusing on advancing force modernization through innovative technological applications and operational concepts. Holding an MBA and Professional certificates from institutions like Olin Business School, NALSAR, Axelos and IIFT, he’s passionate about contributing to aviation, unmanned technology, and policy discussions. Through writing for various platforms, he aims to leverage his domain knowledge to propel unmanned and autonomous systems and create value for Aatmannirbhar Bharat and the Indian Aviation industry.
