By Cdr Rahul Verma (r)
“The future of war is in the air, and he who controls the air will control the world.”
– Giulio Douhet, The Command of the Air.
This prophetic statement, made during the infancy of air power, has never been more relevant than today. As air power revolutionized warfare in the 20th century, unmanned systems are now undergoing a similar transformation only at an exponentially faster pace. The shift is not a sudden upheaval but an evolution, steadily reshaping modern battlefields. Unmanned systems are no longer just an auxiliary force, they are becoming an essential component of military superiority. This sentiment was echoed by the ACAS (Remote) of the Indian Air Force during the Drone Manthan 2.0 organized by the PHD Chambers of Commerce. The trajectory of modern warfare is undergoing a fundamental transformation, not through radical disruption but through the steady evolution of unmanned systems. The battlefield of the 21st century is increasingly defined by intelligent autonomy, swarm coordination, and human-machine teaming. While revolutionary technological leaps often capture headlines, the real power lies in incremental advancements refining unmanned systems to seamlessly integrate with existing military doctrines, rather than replacing them outright.
As with air power, the adoption of unmanned systems faced initial skepticism. Early drones, much like the rudimentary aircraft of World War I, were primarily used for reconnaissance. However, just as air power evolved from observation platforms to strategic bombers, fighter jets, and stealth technology, unmanned systems have transitioned from passive surveillance tools to precision strike platforms, electronic warfare assets, and even autonomous combatants. The pace of this evolution is unprecedented, driven by advancements in artificial intelligence, sensor fusion, and network-centric warfare.
The Evolutionary Parallel: Air Power and Unmanned Systems
The evolution of unmanned systems mirrors the rise of air power in the early 20th century. Just as manned aircraft transitioned from rudimentary reconnaissance platforms to dominant strike and air superiority assets, unmanned systems are following a similar trajectory albeit at a much faster pace. In the early days of aviation, air power was largely underestimated, used primarily for surveillance in World War I. Over time, technological advancements in propulsion, weaponization, and tactics transformed aircraft into decisive elements of warfare. The same pattern can be seen with drones: once relegated to reconnaissance roles, they now serve in electronic warfare, precision strikes, and even autonomous combat scenarios. However, unlike traditional air power, which evolved over decades, unmanned systems are advancing at an accelerated rate due to rapid innovations in AI, sensor fusion, and networked warfare.
A prime example of this parallel is the development of the Predator drone, which, much like early combat aircraft, started as an unarmed reconnaissance tool but evolved into a lethal strike platform. The MQ-1 Predator, initially designed for surveillance, was later armed with Hellfire missiles, making it a game-changer in asymmetric warfare. Its successor, the MQ-9 Reaper, further pushed the boundaries of unmanned air combat, offering greater endurance, payload capacity, and sensor capabilities—akin to how fourth and fifth-generation fighter jets surpassed their predecessors. Similarly, Israel’s Heron TP, originally built for intelligence gathering, evolved into a multi-role platform capable of conducting high-altitude surveillance, electronic warfare, and precision strikes. The rapid enhancement of these UAVs echoes the transformation of aircraft like the Spitfire, F-86 Sabre, and F-16, which began with one primary role but adapted to fulfill multiple mission profiles over time. This underscores how unmanned systems are following the same growth trajectory but reaching maturity at an unprecedented rate.
The Industry and Market Impact
The global unmanned systems market, valued at $25.01 billion in 2025, is expected to reach $46.76 billion by 2030, growing at a rapid pace. This surge is driven by both military and commercial demand. In India, the emphasis on Aatmanirbhar Bharat (self-reliant India) is fostering indigenous innovation and reducing dependency on foreign drone technology. The Indian drone market is projected to reach $4.87 billion by 2030, growing at a CAGR of 22.15%, driven by government initiatives and demand for drone technology. It aims to become a global drone hub, leveraging its IT sector and engineering talent to boost GDP and create new jobs.
- Key Industry Players. India’s DRDO, HAL, and private defence firms like Tata Advanced Systems, Ideaforge, Raphembhir, Adani and Bharat Forge are making strides in UAV development.
- Government Initiatives. Policies such as the Indian Military Aviation Policy (IMAP) 2023 and Indian Military Aerospace Act (IMAA) 2024 are setting structured frameworks for UAV integration.
- Export Opportunities. India is positioning itself as a global drone exporter, competing with Israel, Turkey, and the U.S. in markets across Africa, Asia, and the Middle East.
The Incremental Disruption of Unmanned Warfare
The integration of unmanned systems across land, air, sea, and cyber domains marks a significant shift in military strategy. From intelligence gathering to direct combat roles, drones and autonomous platforms have become indispensable. However, their impact is less about replacing traditional forces and more about augmenting them.
1. Swarm Intelligence & Network-Centric Warfare. The development of swarm intelligence, as seen in India’s MBC2 Swarm Drone System, highlights how unmanned systems are reshaping combat effectiveness. These AI-driven “hunter-killer” drones operate in coordinated groups, creating a force multiplier effect. Unlike conventional drone operations, which rely on centralized command structures, swarm units exhibit decentralized decision-making, reducing vulnerabilities to electronic warfare.
2. Cross-Domain Adaptability, The New Battlefield Standard. Modern unmanned platforms are no longer confined to a single operational environment. Tri-modal UAVs, capable of operating in air, land, and water, represent a shift toward cross-domain adaptability. The DRDO-startup-developed amphibious drone exemplifies this, designed for operations in extreme terrains such as Himalayan glaciers and maritime zones. This approach outpaces adversarial UAVs limited to singular terrains.
3. Unmanned-Unmanned Teaming (UUT) & Manned-Unmanned Teaming (MuM-T). A crucial milestone in the incremental disruption of warfare is the growing sophistication of Unmanned-Unmanned Teaming (UUT) and Manned-Unmanned Teaming (MuM-T).In UUT, autonomous drones and robotic systems communicate and collaborate without direct human intervention, executing synchronized operations. This approach enhances efficiency in swarm attacks, logistics, and ISR (Intelligence, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance). An example of this is India’s Multi-Domain Unmanned Teaming (MDUT), where UAVs, USVs (Unmanned Surface Vehicles), and UUVs (Unmanned Underwater Vehicles) work together to dominate contested environments. MuM-T, on the other hand, integrates unmanned systems with manned assets to enhance operational effectiveness. The Apache Guardian helicopter’s integration with MQ-1C Gray Eagle UAVs serves as a prime example, where the helicopter controls the UAV’s sensor feed and weapons systems, extending battlefield situational awareness. India’s efforts in integrating swarm drones with fighter aircraft will further cement its position in leveraging this hybrid warfare paradigm.
Counter-Drone Evolution: Balancing Offense and Defence
The rapid advancement of unmanned systems has led to a parallel evolution in counter-drone technologies, as nations strive to balance offense and defence in the face of increasingly sophisticated UAV threats. The rapid advancement of unmanned systems has led to a parallel evolution in counter-drone technologies. As the global counter-drone market is projected to grow from USD 1.32 billion in 2025 to USD 2.48 billion by 2035, with a CAGR of 6.54%, and the drone defense system market expected to reach USD 2.57 billion by 2030, it is clear that counter-drone technologies are becoming a critical component of modern security frameworks. The broader unmanned systems market, valued at USD 25.01 billion in 2025 and expected to reach USD 46.76 billion by 2030, underscores the strategic importance of these technologies in future conflicts. This topic deserves a separate article, specifically on Integrated Kinetic-Nonkinetic Frameworks.
Strategic Positioning for Future Conflicts
The integration of unmanned systems across multiple domains is revolutionizing force projection, particularly in asymmetric warfare scenarios. India’s approach to multi-domain unmanned teaming (MDUT) exemplifies this shift, combining aerial, surface, and underwater UAVs into cohesive operational frameworks. This strategic positioning enables persistent surveillance, rapid strike capabilities, and resilient logistical networks, ensuring sustained battlefield dominance. The key components of Multi-Domain Unmanned Teaming are:-
- Integrated Operational Frameworks. MDUT integrates UAVs, USVs (Unmanned Surface Vehicles), and UUVs (Unmanned Underwater Vehicles) to dominate contested environments. This approach enhances situational awareness, extends operational reach, and improves response times across different domains.
- Persistent Surveillance and Intelligence. Unmanned systems provide continuous surveillance capabilities, allowing for real-time intelligence gathering and tactical decision-making. This persistent presence helps in monitoring enemy movements, identifying vulnerabilities, and planning targeted strikes.
- Rapid Strike Capabilities. The integration of unmanned systems with precision strike capabilities enables rapid response to emerging threats. This is particularly effective in asymmetric warfare, where speed and precision are crucial in countering agile adversaries.
- Resilient Logistical Networks. Unmanned systems can establish and maintain logistical networks that are resilient to disruptions. Autonomous supply chains, supported by UAVs and USVs, can ensure a continuous supply of critical resources, even in contested or denied areas.
Evolving Military Doctrines
To fully leverage these advancements, military doctrines must evolve to accommodate the integration of unmanned systems across tri-services. Key policies and frameworks include an “unmanned roadmap” which provides a comprehensive plan for the development, integration, and employment of unmanned systems, outlining a vision for the future and guiding the military towards a systematic migration of mission capabilities to these systems, focusing on urgent warfighter needs. All three services have created these documents to provide the best path to the future and allow us to understand the detailed focus.
As unmanned systems continue to evolve, future conflicts will likely involve more sophisticated multi-domain operations. The strategic positioning of these systems will be critical in achieving and maintaining battlefield dominance. Key areas for future development include:
- Enhanced AI and Autonomy: Advancements in AI will enable unmanned systems to operate with greater autonomy, making them more effective in complex, dynamic environments.
- Cybersecurity and Network Resilience: Ensuring the cybersecurity of unmanned systems and their networks will be essential to prevent cyber threats and maintain operational integrity.
- International Cooperation and Standards: Establishing international standards and cooperation frameworks will facilitate the integration of unmanned systems across different nations and domains, enhancing global security and interoperability.
The strategic positioning of unmanned systems in multi-domain warfare represents a significant shift in military strategy. By integrating these systems into cohesive operational frameworks, nations like India can enhance their force projection capabilities, improve situational awareness, and ensure sustained battlefield dominance. As military doctrines continue to evolve, the effective integration of unmanned systems will remain a critical component of future conflict strategies.
Conclusion: The Long Game of Unmanned Evolution
The shift towards autonomous warfare is not a revolution, it is an evolution. Just as air power redefined global military strategy over the last century, unmanned systems are now shaping the battlefield at an accelerated pace. This evolution underscores the importance of balancing technological innovation with operational pragmatism and doctrinal foresight. As Sun Tzu once said, “The greatest victory is that which requires no battle,” and unmanned systems are increasingly becoming the tools that can achieve such victories by providing strategic advantages without direct confrontation.
While unmanned systems will continue to disrupt conventional paradigms, their true potential lies in complementing and enhancing human decision-making rather than replacing it. The future of warfare belongs to nations that refine their unmanned strategies, leveraging advancements in AI, sensor fusion, and network-centric warfare to maintain a competitive edge. As the global unmanned systems market is projected to reach USD 46.76 billion by 2030, with a significant portion dedicated to military applications, it is clear that these technologies are becoming indispensable for modern military superiority.
The battlefield figures are telling, in recent conflicts, unmanned systems have proven their effectiveness in enhancing situational awareness, precision strikes, and logistical support. For instance, the use of drones in Ukraine has significantly altered the dynamics of ground warfare, providing real-time intelligence and precision targeting capabilities that have shifted the balance in favour of those who possess them. As nations advance their indigenous UAV capabilities, the challenge will be not only in developing cutting-edge technologies but also in seamlessly integrating them into operational frameworks. In the words of Giulio Douhet, “The future of war is in the air,” and today, that future is increasingly unmanned. The race to integrate unmanned systems into military strategies is not just about technological superiority; it is about strategic foresight and the ability to adapt to rapidly changing battlefield dynamics. Nations that succeed in this endeavour will not only enhance their military capabilities but also redefine the nature of modern warfare itself. I would conclude by and I quote,
“Mastery of the air no longer belongs solely to those who fly, but to those who command the autonomous machines that do.”
Cdr Rahul Verma (r) is a doctoral research scholar who boasts 21 years of experience as a Naval Aviator and diverse aircraft experience. Seaking Pilot, RPAS Flying Instructor, and more, his core competencies span Product and Innovation Management, Aerospace Law, Maritime Law, Drone Law, and Flight Safety. Through writing for various platforms, he aims to leverage his domain knowledge to propel unmanned and autonomous systems and create value for Aatmanirbhar Bharat and the Indian Aviation industry.
